11th February 2021 | Biodiversity | QAnon
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#1: The value of biodiversity
It came as a bit of a shock to open a government news release that reads more like an editorial in the Ecologist, but I think it’s an indication of the speed at which the landscape is changing here. The news release was about the Dasgupta review into the economics of biodiversity, which was published last week. Its author, Partha Dasgupta, is a vastly respected Indian-British economist based at Cambridge University.
The Dasgupta review is a big moment, partly because it was commissioned by the Treasury, usually the bulwark of conventional thinking within Whitehall, and supported by quite a big Treasury team. And partly because, unlike the catcalling that greeted the Stern Review in 2006, the criticisms are not coming from the economic mainstream, but from an ecological perspective. His emphasis on future generations as much as present generations is also striking.
It’s a massive report—600 pages—and I’m not going to pretend that I have read it all. Fortunately it comes with successively more compact versions: a 100-page “abridged” monograph and a short ‘headline messages’ document. (Both pdfs.) There’s also a concise summary here.
You get a pretty good idea of the story he tells by simply bullet-pointing some of the headlines in the headline messages:
“Our unsustainable engagement with Nature is endangering the prosperity of current and future generations.
“At the heart of the problem lies deep-rooted, widespread institutional failure.
“The solution starts with understanding and accepting a simple truth: our economies are embedded within Nature, not external to it.
“(i) Ensure that our demands on Nature do not exceed its supply, and that we increase Nature’s supply relative to its current level.
“(ii) Change our measures of economic success to guide us on a more sustainable path.
“(iii) Transform our institutions and systems – in particular our finance and education systems – to enable these changes and sustain them for future generations.
Three quick observations.
The first is that the report comes with some handy visuals. This one is effectively an agenda for change. Dasgupta’s emphasis on changing the metrics and institutions that are shaping the system reminds me of Donella Meadows’ famous list of “places to intervene in a system”. Dasgupta is aiming towards the top of the list.
Second, this feels like quite a big step in terms of mainstream thinking towards Kate Raworth’s ‘doughnut model’—in which viable economic activity happens within limits set by the biosphere and sustainable social limits. When I talk about speed of change, her dissident view of economics was published only in 2017 as a book—the working paper appeared in 2012.
Third, the obvious critique is that if we talk about “valuing” nature, and frame it as “natural capital” we’re inviting its destruction, as George Monbiot argued. The master’s tools will never dismantle the master’s house. Dasgupta recognises the critique:
The Review has developed the economics of biodiversity by viewing Nature in anthropocentric terms. If … Nature should be protected and promoted even when valued solely for its uses to us, we would have even stronger reasons to protect and promote it if we were to acknowledge that it has intrinsic value. Many people, perhaps in all societies, locate the sacred in Nature. (Abridged Version, p.80)
And: this may be the first Treasury-commissioned report that quotes Tagore.
#2: When prophecy fails
One of the most famous bits of 1950s social psychology is a study of an American millenarian Christian sect that believed that the end of the world was imminent. Obviously they were disappointed. In When Prophecy Fails Leon Festinger researched what happened after their disappointment; most didn’t change their minds. Some increased their belief.
The book was almost certainly the inspiration for Peter Cook’s Beyond the Fringe sketch ‘The End of the World’, shared below in the version with Rowan Atkinson.
One of the curious features of the far right American cult QAnon is the similarities it shares with millenarian religion. In that period while Trump was denying the election result, certainly, prophecies circulated about how Biden’s election victory would be overturned and Trump would returned to the Presidency.
In the spirit of Festinger’s research, Kayleigh Rogers discussed on the Five ThirtyEight blog shortly after Inauguration Day how QAnon followers would respond to the failure of these prophecies. In three ways, she concluded. Here’s some extracts:
Keeping the faith
“When believers are faced with a mismatch between their beliefs and reality, cult members often double down… Despite the crisis of faith many Q followers had in the initial reaction to the inauguration, there hasn’t been any evidence of a mass exodus among the movement. Instead, over the last several days, followers have cooked up multiple theories to explain away why their Inauguration Day predictions failed.”
Leaving the movement
“Those whose belief in the QAnon conspiracy was shaken by the failed prophecy of Inauguration Day may consider abandoning the group, and online posts suggest at least some members are, but they will need support to really sever their connection… even with outside support and plenty of evidence, it can be hard for Q followers to break free given how much they’ve put into the movement.”
Going to further extremes
“QAnon itself is a fairly radical and extreme belief system, but as followers come to terms with its failed Inauguration Day prophecy, they become vulnerable to being drawn into even more extreme groups, such as white nationalists and neo-Nazis. It’s clear from online posts that these groups believe disillusioned Q followers are ripe for radicalization, and they may be right. The anxiety and loss of community some Q believers may feel can make them more vulnerable to believing radical ideas.”
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